Ukraine’s Shifting Red Line
Duga radar system, Photo Courtesy of Yves Alarie
Former Wichitan, CIA Director, and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates became the inaugural speaker for the Craig Barton Speaker Series at Wichita State University’s Wiedemann Hall on April 27, and he entertained the audience with wit and wisdom while discussing solutions and directions for United States’ officials regarding several serious global issues facing the country.
Gates scolded the U.S. government for becoming complacent in recent decades by shutting down programs and offices directed toward the former Soviet Union and China. He said that Chinese culture has developed for thousands of years and that over the past few, Xi Jinping has aggressively advanced his Belt and Road program throughout Africa, the Middle East, and other parts of the world to extend Chinese influence. He also cautioned Americans not to consider the 1990s to be the end of the Cold War because Russia still possesses thousands of nuclear weapons, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is eager to return his country to the level of world power it possessed as the post-WWII version of the Soviet Union.
“Without Ukraine there is no Soviet Empire,” Gates said. “Putin is in a battle for his political success, and he's obsessed with Ukraine.” Gates stated that another concern about the Russian leader is that currently there's limited access to Putin, only his “military cronies” are by his side to advise him. Gates agreed with Western military experts that the first weeks of Russia’s attacks on Ukraine have been ineffective and embarrassing to Putin’s image with Russian hardliners.
One weakness hindering Russia’s success during the first weeks of the war is a common one for combatants. “The Russian army is probably the most railroad dependent army of any major country,” Gates said, “and once they get away from their own rail depots, 50, 60, 70 miles, they begin to have significant logistical issues due to fewer available trucks” to take supplies where they're needed. Gates said that the current administration has been slow to respond to the crisis in Ukraine, but President Biden is now finding a bipartisan Congressional voice, and stronger mobilization of NATO resources so that the US government can be more forceful. “Putin was counting on a divided West and a divided NATO.”
“Putin made terrible mistakes in the first phase of the attacks, but that does not preclude a Phase II,“ Gates predicted. “He wants to take Donbas, Mariupol, and Odessa.”
“In the near abroad, other former European Soviet States, Putin would like them to bend the knee to Russia's aspirations and policies,” Gates said during an April 13, 2022, C-Span podcast.
“Putin calls for a change of government in Ukraine, and wants Ukraine to abjure from ever being a member of NATO,” Gates said. When he was Secretary of Defense and met with Putin in person, Gates said he saw the eyes of a stone cold killer.
“Putin wants NATO to move back its lines from where they stood in 1997,” Gates stated. ”It's not about re-establishing the Soviet Union, but rather going back to the Russkiy mir,” the Slavic core of the Soviet Union: Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, a region noted for its convergence of Russian history, language, and diverse culture.
When asked what the U.S. or NATO would do if the Russians detonated a nuclear weapon against Ukrainian cities as Putin and Russian officials have threatened, Gates said Western nations should not respond in kind, but if it was a limited Russian strike, the U.S. would be empowered to reopen the conversation of a Ukrainian no-fly zone and implementing concrete strategic decisions for sending heavy machinery to Ukraine. Gates said that the U.S. and its allies can't be deterred by Putin's nuclear threats because “that would send a message to Iran, North Korea, and China to use the same threats to accomplish their goals.”
Gates said the way the U.S. would impose a no-fly zone is first of all to go in and destroy all of Russia’s air defense systems in or near Ukraine. “That's fundamentally an attack on Russia, and the Biden Administration will have to continue to walk a fine line to avoid WWIII.”
“So far the U.S. has walked that line pretty well but the calculus can change if Russia escalates,” Gates added. “The United States is not in a position to quickly send heavy arms to Ukraine, but Czechoslovakia and other nations in Eastern Europe may be willing to.” Gates said that the Czechs and other Slavic nations could send NATO-supplied tanks, air defense systems, and training specialists to Ukraine. “The United States should encourage these Eastern European countries to provide weapons to Ukraine with the promise that the United States will replace those weapons with more modern equipment.”
When asked what's the greatest national security threat to the United States, Gates said his consistent response is “that it's found within the two square miles that's encompassed with the White House and the Capitol building. We've always had polarization, it’s the paralysis when we can't get to the local and U.S. issues that is a true danger. Ukraine might be a point where the U.S. can overcome this paralysis.”
With regard to the difficult decision of sending troops into battle, Gates said that the president has to believe in himself or herself, and has to be able to persuade the American people that risking those lives matters, “that this isn't some unrealistic objective that the president is giving them, that this a mission that they can perform and carry out, and that the president . . . that the secretary of defense can look at parents in the eyes and say: ‘What your child did mattered and it mattered for our country.’”
Gates said of Putin “I think the odds of him using chemical or nuclear weapons is at this point pretty low for a couple of reasons. First, biological weapons are essentially uncontrollable.” Gates went on explain a second reason: U.S. intelligence indicates that no Russian subs are leaving ports, and no strategic nuclear aircraft have been detected. “At this point, Ukrainian troops are not densely packed so the threat of nuclear weapons is more about breaking the will of the Ukrainian military and government.”
Michael George, who served in the Joint Staff at the Pentagon during the 1990s, said that this upcoming week will perhaps reveal a great deal about Putin’s intentions because on May 9th, the Russians will conduct a Victory Parade celebrating the 77th Anniversary of the end of WWII in Europe which will stir up a stronger sentiment to become more aggressive in achieving its Ukrainian war goals. Speculation is circulating that the Russians might actually use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine if the steel plant attack in Mariupol fails. “The attack could occur via an aircraft or a bomb located in a truck,” George said. “On the other side of the equation, there is the possibility that Putin will be taken out of power if he resorts to limited nuclear missile attacks.”