Trust the science, cherry-picking the numbers, and shaping the narrative are phrases we've heard plenty of this year as government officials, and the media, predicted and forensically dissected election results, the 2020 Census, and the inescapable grip of updated COVID-19 data. We humans are incorrigible when it comes to skepticism, and, generally speaking, for good reason.

Methods of data collection are crucial to the process, but trusting the results involves deeper discussion. Inzata Analytics provides a workable primer on the pitfalls of data analysis: Who or what was sampled? Did researchers work from a pre-selected list, or did they contact people randomly? What type of person responds to market surveys? Are survey questions well designed? What margin of error is acceptable? Who's paying for the research, and to what extent is bias then likely?

The 1790 Census consisted of 650 federal marshals and their assistants who traveled the 13 states, door-to-door, and counted 3.9 million non-Native Americans, including 700,000 slaves; total cost: $44,000. This year, an estimated $15.6 billion has been allocated to count what's expected to be 335 million U.S. inhabitants, give or take. Will we trust the final numbers? Will we know that the follow ups reached those who are hard to reach? Did the questions on the Census forms clearly delineate demographic data? For 2030, some recommend rolling census tallies, forming a national register that includes overlapping accountability from federal, state, and local lists. Why does the data matter? Billions of dollars in grants, representation in the U.S. House, and a better sense of who we are as a nation, that’s why.

When you read about these numbers, or scour a chart from your favorite news source, what do you take away from that experience? Joy Eakins, President of Cornerstone Data, believes that we're deluged with data on a daily basis, but don't always approach the truth of the matter; that we may not receive the intended message, or worse, be fed the wrong data. For the next few months, we'll delve into various scenarios that affected our lives, and what we may have missed the first time we absorbed the information.

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The Spike that Wasn’t

Joy Eakins

Hindsight may be 20/20 but learning from past mistakes is a noble pursuit.  Take this summer’s reporting about COVID cases in Kansas. The White House Corona Virus Task Force issued a report on July 14 stating that Kansas was in the Red Zone – a virtual hotspot for cases – growing faster than the rest of the nation. According to the report, Kansas had a 150% increase in cases over the previous week.

Citizens and the media called on officials to do something. So, they did. 

The Sedgwick County Health Officer issued a new order on July 21 that was later approved by Commissioners. Citing the White House report as a reason for the change, he closed bars and night clubs to the public and  limited gatherings until Sept 9th. Six subsequent orders (Aug 18, Sept 3, 14, 17, Oct 16, 20) cited the July White House report as a reason for closing or limiting business operations and gatherings in Sedgwick County.

Wichita’s Mayor, Brandon Whipple tweeted multiple times about the “huge spike in numbers.”  He told CNN in July that hospitals would be overwhelmed in just 14 to 21 days and in August tweeted that a  “huge spike” was keeping kids out of schools and delaying the start of Fall activities. 

Governor Kelly and her team responded, too. In perhaps one of her more controversial decisions, she issued an Executive Order to attempt to delay the start of all schools in the state. 

Put yourself in their place – you just got word from the White House that your state is a hotspot for infections. It’s the White House. Surely they have the best analytics team in the nation preparing these reports. And not one single epidemiologist, analyst, reporter, or politician questioned the graphs or the data – until now.

If you read the White House report issued on July 14, you’ll see that in the State graph and in 7 of the county graphs, there was a “spike” in cases on the exact same day. It seemed unlikely that 7 of the 12 counties would have the same exact pattern as the state. So, we pulled the raw data cited by the White House and noted that there was a crucial flaw. Nine hundred thirty-two cases reported by KDHE on July 3 were included in the White House report on July 6.  This created the appearance of a drop in cases one week followed by a major spike the following week. 

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Cornerstone Data analysis of USFacts data; Chart: Candor Visuals

While there was an increase in cases that week in July, the increase was only 13% - not the 150% reported widely in the news. In fact, while cases did increase over the summer, the week over week percent change in new cases trended down from June 27 to July 27 and the cases per 100,000 hovered right between 100 and 150 through September 25 before taking off in late October. The growth in case rates in Kansas was below the growth in the nation until the end of August.

What’s equally troubling is that the White House report and KDHE have used the “Report Date” as the axis for their charts. We’ve graphed it using the Symptom Onset date to show the actual growth of cases over time.

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Cornerstone Data analysis of KDHE data; Chart: Candor Visuals

Since KDHE only reports the data three times a week the graphs appear to tell different stories to the casual user. For example, it looks like the Kansas case count was over 1,000 per day in the first chart but in reality, the first time 1,000 cases were observed in the state in a single day was October 5. In the first chart, it appears that cases rocketed up from about 280 per day in May to over 800 per day in June when in reality, that rate grew from late May to early October. Kansas is the only state that limits their reporting to 3 times a week, and it makes spotting trends in the data difficult and creates a misperception of spikes that aren’t always present.

The impact of mistakes and misperceptions like this have far-reaching implications and underscore the importance of letting the data inform decisions. According to analysis by Opportunity Insights, small business revenue is down 39% compared to January and owners have exhausted their savings and financial assistance with the series of closures in the early part of the pandemic - before the spike we saw in late October. With more than a quarter of small businesses now closed permanently, those remaining argue they must stay open to survive even if the case numbers are worse.

Additionally, school districts like Wichita kept children ages 11 and up at home in remote school. Many of our state’s children have not been in a school building  for 9 months now.  Student progress in math for low-income students is down almost 50% in Kansas and online math participation is down 54%.   

The public’s good will has diminished as they have grown weary of official statements that never seem to pan out. Officials are accused of fear-mongering and blowing things out of proportion. And now we see public health officials and other leaders leaving their roles – perhaps at the moment we most need them.

Kansas is managing an emergency situation that will last months. We have limited resources and public will, so leaders need to deploy the appropriate measures at the right time in order to balance the harm of shutdowns with the impact of the virus. Our lack of data maturity means these leaders are guiding the efforts the way a captain would guide his ship through a storm without a motor – relying on his gut and experience and a glimpse at the stars through the clouds for direction.  We’ve got to get the engine online if we want to minimize the damage and, most importantly, save the lives of the people we hold dear. 

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Data: U.S. Census Bureau; Map: Candor Visuals

Alexander Hamilton, the nation’s first Secretary of the Treasury, instituted an 8% protective tariff, aimed at Atlantic-dominant European powers, Harry Truman signed off on the Marshall Plan to oppose the spread of communism while building unity with post-World War II European Allies, and Richard Nixon played ping pong politics and high stakes poker with China, the Soviet Union, and the Middle East to further U.S. influence in those defining theaters of his presidential diplomatic legacy.

Throughout American history, nationalism and partisan foreign policy have been synchronous goals, and Donald Trump, perhaps a more expedient reflection of Otto Von Bismarck, has championed “America First” policies that have rattled stock markets, product highways, and traditional diplomats for nearly four years. Ludwig von Rochau, a German writer and politician in the 1800s, coined the concept of Realpolitik, that in today’s diplomatic culture most likely translates to: “get what you can during negotiations, declare ‘victory,’ and then see how it truly affects your nation’s economy (and the longevity of the politicians who sanctioned the deal).” Many believe the 2020 election results call for a pivot away from 800-pound isolationist gorilla tactics to a more measured approach to foreign policy, will that approach bear better results?.

One constant is that few politicians have challenged the necessity to approach China’s economic rise with a hard edge, calling out acts of malfeasance, and pressuring democratic nations to demonstrate a desire to contest China’s intellectual property theft, currency manipulation, and economic imperialism in multiple continents, all while reclaiming western technological preeminence. Should the U.S. reconsider the TTP agreement to counter the China-led, Asian-Pacific dominant, RCEP pact? In other regional conflicts, will the USMCA prove beneficial to midwestern farmers and auto part suppliers? Will Boeing profit from WTO verdicts in its perpetual litigious battles and EU trade agreements with regard to Airbus?

President-Elect Joe Biden will face these questions, along with many others, including his ability to accomplish numerous tasks concurrently: checking the spread of Covid-19 and reviving the economy, while simultaneously tackling infrastructure, climate change, and social justice issues, to name a few – many of these goals seemingly taking the U.S. in divergent directions.

What impact might Biden administration policies generate for Wichita Metro area trade? How should area businesses prepare for existing and future trade agreements? Three regional subject matter experts weighed in on these issues and suggest ways to improve international business opportunities for the entire United States economy.

Ray Garvey, International Business Manager, Grasshopper Mowers, Moundridge

What will be the impact of the change from NAFTA to the USMCA?

At the end of the day, the volume of international sales orders is what matters. Trade  policy is but one factor, and it’s not a factor we think about on a daily basis, maybe  because it is more static than other factors which can change monthly, if not weekly.  

The “upgrade” to USMCA from NAFTA meant for us a significant amount of paperwork upgrade to create conforming Certificates of Origin for about 1000 SKU’s. The onus for complying with USMCA is on the importer, but we undertook the compliance project so that our importers in Canada and Mexico wouldn’t need to duplicate efforts. Apart from the new formalities, it has been business as usual, nothing gained nor lost. Any change in demand has not been affected by USMCA.  

As someone who grew up in the Midwest, my impression is the bulk of Midwest exports are related to aviation, machinery, commodities, services related to livestock and value added processes to commodities. The biggest factors related to increased sales/exports  will be export market demand, currency exchange valuation, long term weather patterns, and competition. Consumer preferences, product quality, and perception of value are important drivers.  

The retaliatory tariffs enacted by Canada in response to US tariffs had more effect on  our export sales than the changeover from NAFTA to USMCA. The tariffs increased the price of our products by 25% and decreased demand. 

As far as we know, at ground level, USMCA will have no new effect on our industry exports. Increasing Midwest exports will still require Midwestern companies joining the ranks of exporters, seeing the benefits, knowing how to deal with risk, curiosity and willingness to understand the foreign culture they wish to sell in, and being able to provide competitive value through innovation, pricing, and marketing. USMCA just creates the rules for getting product across the borders, it doesn’t dictate who wants the  product, who will buy it, or how competitive it will be.  

How will Grasshopper mowers be impacted by U.S.-China trade policies?  

As a Kansas manufacturing firm, realizing labor and some components are much cheaper from China, we must also realize China will never stop IP theft or currency manipulation. They have all but said so in their drive to become the world’s greatest economic power. It might be insightful to examine the differences in tactics, goals and values of a Communist-controlled economy versus however one would describe our system of governing commerce. I don’t believe our rule books are the same. We’re fierce competitors in markets around the world. While we’ve made the choice not to build a supply chain from China, we love our Chinese customers and don’t benefit from any policies making our product more expensive or more difficult for Chinese customers to obtain. 

The Biden administration will likely continue down a path of developing rules that discourage US companies from sharing proprietary information with their Chinese manufacturing partners.  

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Data: Cornerstone Data; Chart: Candor Visuals

It seems Covid-19 may have had a substantial impact on Chinese supply chains and it appears the trend continues to diversify supply chain origins and even bring some capacity and jobs to the US.  

To what extent are current WTO decisions and EU tariffs changing your business? 

We’ll need to have much more detail on EU tariffs to know who they’ll affect and by how much. Boeing and Airbus have been going at it since the 80s, if not earlier, with dubious trade deals and negotiations and putting the FCPA to the test. We know that European governments contribute greatly to Airbus’ success. So, will the latest WTO be just another volley?

Beau Jackson, Partner, Husch Blackwell, Kansas City, MO

As a lawyer who focuses on international trade practices, what might change under the Biden administration with regard to China?

The last two years have been a reset in trade policy, as an “America First” (rather than a traditional globalist) attitude has dominated. For decades, China has been eating America’s lunch, and U.S. manufacturers have given away more than they should have in terms of proprietary processes and technology. China controls a much larger portion of the U.S. economy than a decade ago, which is disconcerting, and from the standpoint of U.S. companies investing in China, the Communist Party or its provincial representatives often promote their long-term aims by, for example, requiring majority local ownership for brick and mortar U.S. businesses which operate in China. Whether they admit it or not, all businesses located in China are to some extent under the control of the Chinese government. It’s been painful for my clients who are having to pay higher costs due to the tariff wars, but the Biden Administration will be in a tough situation, they won’t want to appear too soft on China, so high tariffs under the law known as “Section 301” may remain in place. Relatedly, it may have been a geopolitical mistake to pull out of the TPP, as it would provide good, viable alternatives to China for American manufacturers sourcing from, or doing business in, the Asian-Pacific region. In terms of legal challenges, I think any Presidential Administration should pick its trade battles; for example, Huawei is more of a national security and economic threat than TikTok.

What are your thoughts about the USMCA versus NAFTA?

Some people argue that the USMCA is NAFTA-lite, others argue it has righted many of NAFTA’s wrongs, the reality appears to be somewhere in the middle. Auto manufacturers in Mexico must use U.S.- made parts for 75% of the vehicles, and pay for Mexico’s workers must rise to keep the playing field more equal to that of American workers. For us in the Midwest, agriculture, especially dairy, seems to benefit from the treaty, while steel and aluminum tariff results are mixed.

How are WTO decisions impacting U.S.- UK/EU relations?

The WTO is in a position to pick winners and losers by determining what is classified as a subsidy or not. Unfortunately, these decisions often punish those who are not directly part of the Boeing versus Airbus dispute.

Karyn Page, President and CEO of Kansas Global Trade Services, Wichita

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Data: U.S. Census Bureau; Chart: Candor Visuals

What do you think will be the immediate impact on U.S. trade when Biden becomes president?

First of all, it will take 9-12 months for the president to address major trade issues because so many others are more pressing. Covid first, national defense . . . it may happen in the first 6-9 months. There will be no changes in U.S. – China tariffs, but Biden might remove the aluminum tariff because there is less competition in that market than for steel, and there is less of a legal foundation for aluminum being an issue of national security. 

Per the recent WTO decision that has allowed the EU to impose tariffs worth $4 billion on US goods, which countered the 2019 WTO allowance of $7.5 billion in tariffs on EU goods (both decisions intended to compensate affected countries for illegal Boeing or Airbus subsidies): Where does this litigation head next?

Biden’s administration will have to establish hard and soft boundaries in setting tariff boundaries in terms of which products should be included. This also will take time because several U.S. trade representatives are politically appointed, and they will have to coordinate with professional, career staff who handle international trade and foreign policy.

What are you telling your Kansas Global Trade Services clients to expect during, and after, the transition of a new president?

Number one, Trump is still in office, and the policies his administration put into place still exist. Secondly, pay attention to changes when they occur, there will be new opportunities for companies in many markets. Next, advocate for laws and policies that will help your business. Our Kansas congressional representatives are very responsive when it comes to helping small businesses – be very direct, reach out to them.  

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Illustration by Ainsley Christofferson

Part III.  Entertainment

No, you can't always get what you want
You can't always get what you want
You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometime you find
You get what you need

And I went down to the demonstration
To get my fair share of abuse
Singing, "We're gonna vent our frustration
If we don't we're gonna blow a fifty-amp fuse"

1969,  Mick Jagger and Keith Richards

As we approach the end of the rabbit hole year known as 2020, in order to better cope with the inequity, unfairness, and incongruity that is our current normal, we can channel the inspiration behind Rolling Stone icons Jagger and Richards, and countless other entertainers to write the lyrics of our reality.

Ask local musicians, comedians, theater dwellers, and ticket-takers about the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on their industry, and the word frustration will likely erupt in one form or another. Cancelled performances, closed, or restricted venues, and reduced revenue lead many local performers and venue operators to emphatically shake their heads in despair.

Andrew Coss, bassist for the Sleepy Truckers (founded in 1995):

How has the pandemic affected the Sleepy Truckers, how difficult has it been to schedule gigs, given social distancing mandates, and other Covid-19 restrictions?

This pandemic has been, to this point, about build-up and subsequent frustration/disappointment. There have been several opportunities for this unit to play, only to have Covid-19 case numbers rise, resulting in many a cancelled show mere days before gig time. It’s simply been very difficult to trust that a show will actually happen before a shutdown occurs. Like so many other musicians and projects, we tried the “virtual” approach. While a novel idea, it doesn’t make up for the direct crowd reaction and interaction that inherently drives Sleepy Truckers. For us, no amount of “thumbs up” or “heart” emojis gives the same feeling as being there.

What changes have occurred during these past few months that you think might be permanent for Wichita's music and bar scene? For your band?

I expect to see shortened and/or earlier hours for shows for quite some time. I’m also fairly certain that in-person attendance will remain scaled back.

What role, if any, do you see for local/state government in helping with Wichita's entertainment business recovery?

This is where it gets a bit “dicey.” The politicization of mask wearing has had a drastic impact on how or even if clubs can remain open. Personally, I believe that if someone just doesn’t care about live music or a healthy and safe local economic recovery, they will keep throwing the mask on the ground. I don’t understand the seeming incredible difficulty of negotiating the temporary wearing of a mask now in order to facilitate a faster, more solid rebound later. I have a feeling that, as cases explode again, we are headed towards another several steps backward; many venues simply won’t survive another frontal loss of revenue assault.

At the same time, I have heard some club owners say they are tired of being the “mask police.”

So . . . accountability for the various outcomes of this issue lies in the hands of many.

A couple of points to ponder: If the Flaming Lips can orchestrate an entire concert, band AND audience, enclosed in plastic bubbles, then how can wearing a mask be such a momentous thing to ask? AND, it occurs to me that if a chimpanzee can manage to extract termite larvae out of a rotten log with nothing but a stick, this mask or no mask dilemma shouldn’t be such a tough obstacle to overcome.

Emma Russell, Operating Partner, Mort’s Cigar Bar

What has been happening at Mort’s during the “pandemic months?”

Our business model has changed, we’re booking musicians differently: singles, duos, trios at most, and we require masks for all of our performers, some even wear theirs while singing. We have fewer tables, 50% capacity, social distancing . . . we’re playing the long game, we want people to be safe until we can open up to full capacity. Right now, it’s not about profit, we just want to be able to pay our employees and our musical talent. We’ve been able to keep all but a couple of our employees. Being able to serve alcohol and cigars to go has been helpful.

Which changes in your business model do you think will be permanent, even beyond the pandemic?

Sedgwick county just announced that we can stay open until 1 a.m., and we may keep that policy, even if the county decides bars can stay open until 2 a.m., our regular closing time. I also think that this pandemic will lead to growth of new bands gaining the opportunity to perform and be heard.

In spite of all of the difficult challenges you are facing, what provides hope for your business, and for the entertainment industry?

People love our industry, they love to gather, to listen to great music, drink a martini, eat our popcorn, smoke a cigar, and we expect people to continue to want that. We’re very fortunate to have an outdoor space to make that happen. We’re offering music seven days a week, twice a day for three of those days. People want a “piece of normal,” and we’re providing that part of their routine.

Zack Manuel, lead singer and guitarist for the Zachary Spencer Band 

As a relatively new band in Wichita, how is the pandemic affecting your attempt to rise in the music scene?

We’ve probably had 15 cancellations since March, and it’s very frustrating, especially when you’re trying to get your music out there. In these past several months, the band has recorded original tunes, created some videos, and performed some limited capacity indoor and outdoor gigs, but it’s just not the same exposure as when you perform before bigger crowds. Our band was gaining momentum in 2019, then these cancellations had a domino effect on us. People can’t as easily follow you when you’re not performing live – we’re very fluid and spontaneous, each of our performances is different. You can’t capture that in a CD, or even in a video. It’s hard to keep the band excited about playing when things are not moving forward.

What will be different about the Zachary Spencer Band, or the area music scene, after pandemic restrictions go away?

In many ways, there is a stronger sense of community, and the opportunity for less known, local bands to perform, since the bigger bands can’t tour. We’ll probably see some of the newer bands more often after they’ve established themselves with local venues.

Given all of the negatives you’ve cited about the music entertainment industry right now, why continue?

Because it’s something that feels normal at a time when nothing else does. These past few months have allowed me to spend more time with things that matter, it’s been good for song writing, and for honing my craft.

What about Drama and Theater in the Wichita Area?

Movie houses, and live drama venues are a mixed bag, with the Regal Warren movies closed indefinitely, while the Hutchinson’s B&B Theater is open, with social distanced seating. Roxy’s, the Crown Uptown, the Kechi Playhouse, and the Orpheum are all open, but also with limited seating.

Because of this pandemic, we want to get out of the house, have a drink, listen to our favorite local band, watch a movie, and simply partake in all that constitutes the pleasures of disposable income and leisure time, with all of our friends, and with others we don’t know. Yet, alas, as Messieurs Jagger and Richards explained to us in 1965, sometimes, we can’t get no satisfaction, either.

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Illustration by Ainsley Christofferson

Part II.  Manufacturing

Beginning early in the 20th Century, Wichita, and the surrounding  area, became an important part of the world’s culture. From mass producing dependable airplanes that shrunk the globe, to pocket stoves for soldiers during WWII, amusement park rides for people old and young at heart, camping equipment and coolers, and that smelly, viscous goo that helps clear the sinuses, this metro area became not only known for being in the center of the U.S., but also for leading it in innovative acuity.

McPherson boasts 14 plastics manufacturing companies, while El Dorado is birthplace to BG Products, an international automobile maintenance product manufacturer. The manufacturing industry has thrived in this region, and with the third highest concentration of aerospace engineers in the country, with 450 parts suppliers, Wichita is still positioned to revive the manufacturing spirit, compatible with a movement to “bring jobs back to the U.S.” mantra. That campaign faces growing turbulence, however, as the world’s economy continues to falter  in the face of the pandemic.  

Steven Trent, a noted economic forecaster with Citigroup recently stated in MarketWatch, “Even the stronger airlines are going to be smaller airlines for a while, and the weaker airlines maybe don’t survive.” Trent also predicted that airline recovery to pre-Covid-19 levels would not occur until 2023, and the year after for passenger traffic levels.

According to The World Bank, the baseline forecast is a 5.2% contraction in global GDP for 2020, with per capita income falling 7%.  Wichita’s manufacturing trade totals are 11.6% lower than this time last year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Given that the pandemic, combined with U.S.- China tensions, has disrupted trade routes, and supply chains, how are local manufacturers faring, and what will the future hold when, or if, business becomes normal again?

Some perspective from area manufacturers and subject experts: 

John Hall, Plant Logistics Manager of Case New Holland Industrial (CNHI) in Wichita:

How has the pandemic impacted sales? 

In March and April corporate expectations were that the market would be significantly impacted and we removed almost ½ or our planned volume for 2020 and shut down production for April and May. Starting in June retail sales were well above forecast and that trend has continued with addition of volume in each monthly cycle and a line rebalance up planned for the end of the year and increased volumes in 2021.

How has your workforce been affected?   

Hourly workers were on furlough for 2 months

Any impact with regard to your supply chain?

Many of our suppliers were on furlough and that impacted our manufacturing start-up date and we’re still seeing some impact as we have had multiple suppliers with COVID hot spots.

As you compile various forecasts for 2021, what are some changes in your business model that may switch from 2020 temporary, to permanent in 2021?

During the furlough we performed an extensive analysis of our supply base with focus on vendor lead times so we can react quicker to movement in the business demands. There is also an aggressive project reduce standard commercial lead time from current month plus 2 to month plus 1.

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Data: Cornerstone Data; Chart: Candor Visuals

What else would you like to add to help our readers understand the complexity of manufacturing in general, and during this pandemic?

CNHI is a global entity and the worldwide impact of COVID has created a wave or ripple impact as vendors in the rest of world regions have been impacted to different degrees and at different times. The transportation network has also been impacted by COVID in a way that has changed how we schedule both material through our supply chain and how we ship whole good product to our customers. I guess for CNHI Wichita it has forced us to self-evaluate how we do business and how we can be better prepared for the next global crisis.   

Patty Koehler, President of JR Custom Metals in Wichita, said that economic conditions over the past several months, and short lead times, have made it difficult to schedule production, and said that is compounded by the fact that  some Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) have shut down entirely. “Some supply chains are simply not there.”

The inconsistent nature of production demand, and business layoffs and furloughs have rattled personnel managers across the globe. Koehler said that JR Custom Metals has “done everything we can to keep our workforce.”

In spite of those issues, Koehler sounds battle hardened when declaring “We welcome the challenge.”

Karyn Page, President and CEO of Kansas Global Trade Services, said that vacillating tariff and trade policies are hard on local exporters. Page doesn’t disagree with many of the reasons why the U.S. is confronting other nations’ trade practices, but the back and forth, improvised decision-making leads to difficulties when advising companies engaged in international trade.

“If President Trump was sitting right here, I’d lean over and tell him to stop these fluctuating trade and tariff policies,” Page said.

In terms of local businesses, Page believes Wichita is still a major player in terms of global exporting, she feels local leadership needs to step its game up to ensure that continues during the 21st Century. Diversification of its industries and conversion of current industries to meet the conditions of the 4th Industrial Revolution, largely characterized by digital transformation, are an absolute must.

“I think Wichita was a more vibrant manufacturing community in the 1980s and 90s than today, but the base and potential is here to do great things right now,” she added.

Debbie Franklin, Associate Vice President for Strategic Initiatives at Wichita State University, believes that the manufacturing landscape has been changing for many years prior to 2020, and that the addition of Deloitte’s Smart Factory at WSU is proof that the industry is continuously transforming:

“The US Manufacturing base stands at a challenging crossroads. To increase competitiveness, it is important to foster transformational ecosystems that will help propel the uptake of advanced manufacturing concepts and initiatives, while also having a direct connection to academic programs that are continually refreshed by new technologies, methods, and industrial operations.  The collective convening power of Deloitte, The Smart Factory @ Wichita and Wichita State University, including the attractive and centrally located investments made at the WSU Innovation Campus, will make it easier to accelerate cyber manufacturing initiatives by drawing manufacturing leaders into an existing ecosystem of technology, industry, and academia.”

Competition can be an unsentimental tyrant, insensitive to past accomplishment, rewarding those who find a better way. Thus, it appears incumbent upon those who can continue the Wichita area’s proud manufacturing tradition, the engineers, the financiers, the politicians, the CEOs, the craftsmen, to step up, and innovatively find paths to solve problems which appear to be insoluble. What lies beyond terminal velocity? Let’s avoid finding out.

Last month, Candor went into detail about how schools in USD 259 and surrounding districts planned to open. The question was raised: how well will schools fare under the circumstances of a pandemic? While there is still no simple, definite answers, there are many thoughts and opinions which may serve to aid in further decision-making regarding education. 

According to an article from science.org, younger people can perhaps be as one-half less likely to contract and transmit COVID-19 as their adult counterparts. Information like this plays a large part in the operation of school boards across the nation, and across the world. The decisions have been made, and school is back in session. The question now is how things are going. 

April Pameticky and Steve Maack, both veteran educators in Wichita’s public school system, offered their views on how things were going with virtual-only teaching at East High.

“I do feel that for the safety of students, staff, and vulnerable families who could be overwhelmed both physically and financially by students who bring home COVID-10 infections, that secondary school starting online was the right choice,” Maack said. “It’s unfortunate, but so is every aspect of this pandemic... I think the biggest barrier to getting to know students is the inability to pull a student aside and have a relatively private conversation. Even the lack of banter or verbal exchanges and greetings before and after and even during class have really affected the abilities of teachers to get to know students, and students to get to know each other. This all makes class time pure business with so few means to reestablish the normal face-to-face interactions that help build relationships.” 

It is no surprise that students and staff should feel a disconnect - both from each other personally, and from the traditional ways that they have gone about educating and learning in the past. The path to success is riddled with obstacles and challenges, especially today. 

“But,” Pameticky explained, “I have found some of the challenges truly exciting. Teachers have access to technology and training in a way that we never have before. This gives us a real opportunity to examine some best practices in remote learning, and adapt and change things that may have gotten a little stale.” 

Modern problems require modern solutions, though not all problems within the education division of life today are inherently new to the virus, as Maack elaborates:

“Unfortunately, the inequities and difficulties and disadvantages that many students start off with don’t go away with a pandemic, and in fact, they’re exacerbated by remote schooling. So many barriers to full participation are out of a student’s control: poor internet connection, a home environment that isn’t conducive to online learning, students who already feel disenfranchised feeling even more so. So I’d like to see us, as a community, help address those basic inequities and disadvantages before the next catastrophe.” 

There is currently much demand from the public for aid with Internet accessibility in the time of remote learning, and some options are available for those in student households. Pameticky said that “if I’ve learned nothing else, it’s that internet and connectivity should be part of our regular infrastructure and available to everyone at low or no cost. Everyone should have free internet. Period.” 

Preparedness for upcoming semesters and beyond are on the minds of everyone connected in some way with schools. There is a level of change still on the horizon that will show the strength and shortcomings of society as we as a community deal with the pandemic, and work through it together. The future is unknown, but teachers and students are adapting to the new reality with determination, and flexibility.

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Illustration by Ainsley Christofferson

Part I:  Real Estate and Retail

Just over 60 years ago, CBS aired the classic Twilight Zone episode where (spoiler alert) department store mannequins practiced personification, and one woman realized that her freedom to roam in human form was ending. In what may feel to some as if we’re living a 2020 sequel to that episode, people are asking:  “When is it our turn feel free again, to leave the confines of shelter in place to simply venture to the grocery store, without a mask, and without wiping down our purchases with Lysol wipes upon return, and without scrubbing our hands raw while humming the alphabet?”

The pandemic has led to changing realities, and one of those for the Wichita area is that the unemployment rate jumped from 3.8% to 10.8% during the first six months of 2020, just a tick under the 11.1 % national figure, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wichita manufacturing in June, 2020, was down 8.1% from the same month last year, and “Leisure and Hospitality” down 15.8% for the same period.  That translates into great challenges for the “reopening” of Wichita aerospace, retail, restaurants, entertainment, and everything else that makes this community economically viable, and enjoyable.

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Data: Cornerstone Data; Chart: Candor Visuals

Worldwide, tensions flare among those in leadership, and those who aren’t; without doubt, Covid-19 is the most contagious among humans of the coronavirus family, and many leaders are calling for less activity to limit the number of cases, and deaths. But if we aren’t moving, communicating, selling, and buying, then economically, businesses and communities are also at risk. Local area businesses appear to be heeding medical experts’ recommendations to socially distance, limit occupants, and wear masks, yet, as of August 29, the Sedgwick County Covid-19 dashboard reported a total of 6,772 cases, and 50 deaths, (note the chart’s “New Case” numbers for Sedgwick, and contiguous counties above; search your county’s status and other Covid-19 data at Cornerstone Data).

For real estate developers like George Laham, his challenge is two-fold, with 15 commercial properties in the Wichita area, which contain numerous retail outlets, many local, several more national chains, Laham knows land value is directly connected to retail performance. Given that Brooks Brothers, Neiman Marcus, J.C. Penney, Pier I, GNC, and so many other major national players have declared one form of bankruptcy or another in 2020, what will it take to maintain his business, Laham Development’s, strong presence in the Wichita area? What will the retail climate look like in a few months, even if Covid-19 is in remission? “Businesses will ‘reopen,’ Laham said. “but the question is: what financial shape will they be in?”

Back in 1992, Laham persuaded The Gap that Wichita is a valid location for national chains by convincing owners that the Wichita area is adequately populated to create profitable revenue. “If you draw a circle around Wichita to include every town that’s within a two-hour drive, we had over 870,000 people who would shop in Wichita,” Laham explained. “That was around the threshold that many retailers demanded, and still do.”  Laham insists that other investors, in spite of the pandemic, are eager to expand to the Wichita area soon. “We’ve seen Sephora, Pottery Barn, and Trader Joe’s choose this market, many others are on the list.”

In terms of residential property, Wichita State University’s Center for Real Estate predicted in its annual report that the Wichita area will realize just under 1,000 single family permits for new construction, and over 10,000 home sales in 2020. Tonya Stephenson, an agent with Golden Realtors in Wichita, is watching that prediction morph into a convoluted trajectory.

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George Laham, founder of Laham Development, believes the Wichita metro area is ready to bounce back strongly once pandemic cases subside

“Covid-19, along with record low mortgage interest rates has created an extreme sellers’ market. The pandemic hit just as the seasonal home selling season would have typically started,” Stephenson explained. “Because of the lockdown and uncertainty of what the future would hold, homeowners who were considering selling during the summer simply did not list their homes for sale.” The WSU Center for Real Estate forecast an overall 4.3% rise in home prices in 2020, but that may prove too low. “Buyers, particularly first-time home buyers, were racing to the marketplace buoyed by interest rates under 3%,” Stephenson said. “We have been sitting at a 2-3 week inventory for most of the summer.”  The result, Stephenson added, is that “buyers are racing to put in an offer on every new listing, particularly in homes priced under $200,000;  most listed properties have multiple offers within the first day or two and often end up selling for more than asking price. As a result, home prices have escalated in a fairly short time frame.”

 As for the pandemic’s impact on retail businesses, while strolling through your local supermarket, or favorite fast food lane, you may have noticed another inflationary impact of the pandemic: the United States Department of Agriculture reports that from June 2019 to June 2020, shoppers realized an increased cost of 5.6% for food consumed in-home, and a 3.1% increase for foods outside of the home. Local businesses are scrambling to build drive-throughs, boost internet sales, or provide pickup or delivery services to survive, since dining out in close contact to others has declined, and supply chains have faltered. Several favorite food establishments have closed down, attributed to the reduced traffic caused by the pandemic.

Two Wichita area service providers that aren’t experiencing decline are in the automobile repair business, which was deemed “essential” by the federal government. European Car Company’s David Leivian said that car owners haven’t “skipped a beat” calling him for repairs. Bill Thompson, who’s operated Kansasland Tire on North Maize Road for 24 years, attributes a full schedule of repairs on a loyal customer base, and perhaps people reflecting on their “To Do” lists during the “shelter at home” months since March. “We were breaking monthly records before the pandemic hit, and our business is still going strong through the summer months,” Thompson said. “Even though people aren’t traveling as much, their stimulus check is like ‘found money’ that they’re putting into car maintenance.”

It hasn’t been as easy for many other Wichita area retailers, as state and local laws have dictated who can remain open, and how many occupants are allowed within a building, but optimism still remains in spite of the uncertainties the last months of this epic year present. “I told my staff when all of this hit, we have to hold on tight, and stay positive,” Laham said. “Look forward, not down.”

Rod Serling created a television series that forced people to consider alternative ways of life, and often, disparate ways of viewing who we are, and how we could function. This pandemic is demanding that citizens of the Wichita area adapt to a “new normal,” and many locals are embracing this ultimatum with the same grit that brought them to business in the first place. Others are treading water, and still others have decided to cut their losses and leave their business behind. Which businesses are considered essential by both government officials, and consumers, is dictating how robust the Wichita area real estate and retail sectors reemerge in the post-Covid-stressed economy.

Editor’s Note: Next month, we’ll investigate how manufacturing is faring in our region, and to what degree optimism prevails in that sector of the area’s economy.

How USD 259 and Other Local Districts Are Reopening Kansas Classrooms

Since the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in Washington State in January of this year, life in the United States has been more than a little bit altered. Information, misinformation, theories and new findings are being presented and analyzed by people all over the world each day. With autumn soon creeping into Kansas, parents and children alike are curious what to expect when teachers and their students return to the classroom in the Wichita area, most on September 8 of this year.

With the Wichita Board of Education pressured to provide the required 1,116 student interaction hours within the school year, there are three learning models which USD 259 is proposing to head the return to education. They are: 1) On-site (face-to-face) learning, 2) MySchool Remote (local online) learning, and 3) Education Imagine Academy (virtual education) learning. Other area school districts are proposing some version of the same choices. Under the decision made during the August 20 Board of Education Meeting for USD 259, parents of Pre-K - 5 students will have full choice between all three options. For students in grades 6-12, however, MySchool Remote, and Education Imagine Academy, remain the only two means for an education. This is valid through the first nine weeks of school, and may be subject to change afterwards. This is a unique development. Surrounding districts, including Valley Center, Derby, and Park City, all offer in-person learning opportunities for all students included with optional remote learning. Maize, Andover, and Goddard schools are leaning toward a hybrid learning environment, spending specific days in and out of school throughout the school week, while Pre-K - 5 students are mostly in-person.

For Wichita Public Schools, onsite learning is by far the most supported education practice within the district. It was discussed in the BOE meeting held on July 30, that of the 911 classified USD 259 employees surveyed toward the end of July this year, more than 53 percent of them preferred onsite learning as opposed to the other options. On-site learning remains the most familiar and easily manageable path, though it is not without heavy safety restrictions. The CDC’s recommendations concerning masks and social distancing must be followed, with a close eye on the health of students and faculty throughout each day. Students who ride the bus must be distanced with assigned seating and, if applicable to them, must share seating with their household members. Masks will be required by all passengers, including the driver. Students will unload the bus from front to back.

For many families who are struggling economically, on-site education is a reliable and often necessary way to get enough food for children every day. This is vital, since so many people have become unemployed during the pandemic. Food services within an on-site school system would be simplified and quick, with no lunch bars and restricted eating areas. Several area districts set up “grab and go” programs this summer to provide food services for those who qualify for free or reduced breakfast, or lunch.

MySchool Remote, the second most supported model (with upwards of 15 percent approval among the 911 employees mentioned earlier), will offer online schooling with a considerable amount of teacher-student interaction. With all necessary required technology provided, students would remain enrolled in their area’s school of choice and would thus interact with that school’s staff. Daily, students and teachers are scheduled to convene over video messaging platforms, Microsoft Teams for all USD 259 students. As with before the pandemic, middle and high school students will interact with their teachers as if following the in-person schedule.

Education Imagination Academy is the fully virtual, less localized education option for students within the USD 259 area. The Academy’s rosters for the 2020-21 school year are completely filled. The Education Imagine Academy offers flexible hours to suit student and parent needs, with more than 70 courses offered. For those interested, an e-sports league is a program also provided by the Academy.

In June, the Maize school district offered a survey in which 70 percent of parents answered that they were most comfortable with their children attending schooling in person in the upcoming year(s) amidst the virus. Already in USD 259, the novel coronavirus has been confirmed at Cessna Elementary, Curtis Middle School, Sowers Alternative High, and North High - all within the staff community alone, and only since school faculty returned earlier this August. The total number of cases within each school is unknown. With many students soon to be inside learning institutions, the question of a coronavirus outbreak looms on the minds of many people. With the safety of children and their educators in question, there is much to consider, and much alternative planning to be completed.