Shades of the 1930s

It is truly amazing that so many Americans, Europeans and other “democratic,” peace-loving nations are quietly sitting on their hands watching Russia use intimidation by threat of force, and then actually invade Ukraine. The world has seen all of this before with the prelude to World War II. Then as now, no one is willing to step up and try to face down the antagonist with anything other than diplomatic or economic sanctions. Many in the US want to remain isolationist as they did under President Roosevelt prior to WWII. The United Nations is showing no desire to get involved, very much like the League of Nations in response to Japanese, Italian and German warlords’ use of force to further their expansionist actions. The US and others sat on the sidelines until actually attacked, or until these nations realized that unless they allied with and joined the countries fighting against the aggressors, they were next on the conquest menu. Looking at relatively recent history and then comparing it to what’s happening in Ukraine today might prove predictive. 

In 1931, in what many believe was the opening conflict of WWII, the Japanese invaded Manchuria, Republic of China. This occurred after a Japanese fabricated incident where they blamed Chinese forces for blowing up a small section of railroad line owned by Japan near Mukden, China, on September 18, 1931. Under this pretext, Japan set up a puppet state called Manchukuo. China appealed to the League of Nations on September 22, however, Japan vetoed any actions by the League harmful to Japan’s expansionist ambitions. In disdain for the League of Nations after the Lytton Report was ratified, stating Japan had violated the territorial integrity of China, the Japanese walked out of the League and didn’t return. The League’s covenant had no provisions for creating a military force to combat aggression.  Japan then used further incidents to justify a full-blown attempt to conquer and occupy all of China. Last week, Russia voted against a UN Security Council resolution to denounce itself for its invasion of Ukraine.

Elsewhere in the world, in 1935 Italy made a second attempt to conquer Ethiopia.  This was part of Benito Mussolini’s attempt to reestablish the Roman Empire.  Again, there was an appeal to the League of Nations for aid. In 1936, Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selassie I, addressed the League and asked for help. Again, without provisions to provide military forces to aid Ethiopia, Ethiopia was left to appeal to individual nations for aid. Due to growing concerns over German intentions in Europe, Great Britain and France turned their backs on Ethiopia and tacitly allowed Italy to pursue their military campaign. Since the US was not a member of the League, it stayed out of the situation. 

As with recent 21st century unchallenged Russian land grabs, this acquiescence by the major powers gave Adolf Hitler the idea that he could do something similar in Europe. Like Mussolini, Hitler was out to return Germany to its previous size and prestige. Following World War I and the subsequent Treaty of Versailles, Germany lost territory and was restricted on how large its military could be and what weapons it could maintain. According to one source, this second function of the Treaty was covertly ignored shortly after World War I and then openly disregarded following the Nazis rise to power in the early 1930s. 

Starting in 1936, Germany began reclaiming territory forfeited under the Treaty of Versailles.  In March, Hitler’s forces moved into the Rhineland.  Britain and France did not intervene even though they had the right to under the Treaty.  Next came the annexation of Austria in March 1938. Ostensibly, the Germans claimed that 99% of Austrians wanted the union despite large minorities not being allowed to vote.  Later that year, Hitler, emboldened by the annexation of Austria, threatened a European war if the Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia was not turned over to Germany. Unfortunately, this wasn’t enough for Hitler, as further described, on March 15, 1939, Hitler violated the Munich agreement and moved against the Czechoslovak state. Hitler, sensing the overwhelming desire of Britain and France to avoid another major war in Europe, felt he could now make demands for territorial concessions from Poland. Britain and France then knew that Hitler was not going to stop and pledged their support to Poland if Germany attacked.  “To justify the action, Nazi propagandists accused Poland of persecuting ethnic Germans living in Poland. They also falsely claimed that Poland was planning, with its allies Great Britain and France, to encircle and dismember Germany. According to the Holocaust Encyclopedia, the SS, in collusion with the German military, staged a phony attack on a German radio station. The Germans falsely accused the Poles of this attack. Hitler then used the action to launch a “retaliatory” campaign against Poland. 

With this as a backdrop, how does this compare to what is currently happening with regard to  Russian actions, and more importantly, to the actions of Vladimir Putin? The first and basic point to understand is that just like Mussolini and Hitler at the beginning of World War II, Putin wants to correct what he sees as a huge insult and reduction of the power and territory of Russia. To date, 14 former Soviet republics have gained independence from the former Soviet Union. This equates to approximately 24% of the landmass of the former Soviet Union.  

According to the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in an article last month, Putin began declaring his intentions to restore Russia to its former greatness shortly after becoming President of Russia in 1991, taking pages out of Hitler’s WWII playbook.He started by “rebuilding the Russian military, modernizing and expanding Russia’s nuclear arsenal, reviving and expanding Russian intelligence services and activities, taking control of Russian media outlets, consolidating state industries, and undermining (and now openly crippling) any political opposition to his United Russia party.” All of this is along the lines of what Hitler did in preparing his war in Europe. Furthermore, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), what Putin wants is “… an end to NATO expansion, a rollback of previous expansion, a removal of American nuclear weapons from Europe, and a Russian sphere of influence.” This sphere of influence appears to be the return of now independent former Soviet republics and former Warsaw Pact countries. This would reestablish a buffer zone between Russia and the major NATO military powers in Western Europe. So far, the US and the rest of NATO have rejected these demands. Unfortunately, Ukraine did not pursue admission into NATO after it became independent.

Putin amplified his expansionist beliefs in an essay composed last July and in an address to the world on February 21. If Ukraine falls, and NATO and the UN do nothing militarily to try and stop Russia, it may set the stage for further attacks on other countries. The political and economic sanctions currently being implemented by the US and others may not be enough. Fortunately, except for Finland, there are no non-NATO countries adjacent to Russia or pro-Russian countries. Under the NATO charter, an attack on one is an attack on all and requires all NATO countries to aid Ukraine. If Poland and other nearby nations don’t give in, Putin would probably try an ultimatum with military force on these nations’ borders. He would only attack if he decides NATO will not respond due to his nuclear weapons threats. That decision will be based on NATO, the European Union, and the rest of the world’s response to actions in Ukraine.  This could also be a prelude to reoccupying the three now independent, former USSR, Baltic Republics of Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania.

What will the countries of the world do about Russian intervention in the Ukraine?  Economic sanctions are underway, and a number of NATO countries have stepped up their alert status and have provided military aid to Ukraine. The US has sent additional forces to some NATO countries and is also on a higher level of alert. China has not endorsed Russia’s military moves, but has recognized Russia’s security concerns. Will China use this Russian example to try and take back Taiwan with military force, i.e. reintegrating a breakaway province? Will North Korea try to make economic or territorial demands of South Korea to force reunification under North Korean rule? What will Iran do? Its leaders could use nuclear coercion in an attempt to rebuild the Persian Empire or a new Islamic Caliphate. Only time and diplomatic, economic, and military efforts will tell. 

Lieutenant Colonel Michael R. George (Retired) attended and then taught at the Air Command and Staff College (ACSC) – Developed the Nuclear Warfare curriculum for ACSC after the collapse of the Soviet Union and served on headquarters staffs at the Strategic Air Command (SAC), Offutt AFB, NE and the staff of the Joint Staff at the Pentagon