Hypersonic hyperdanger hyperbole?

 

With the recent test of a hypersonic cruise missile by the Chinese, there have been several questions asked about what this kind of weapon could be used for, and does it give the Chinese first-strike capability? The short answer to the first-strike nuclear question is “yes,” with help from other first-strike weapons.  

Historically, a first-strike weapon was a weapon that could reduce or eliminate an enemy’s nuclear retaliatory force to a level where the retaliatory strike is survivable. During the Cold War this resulted in the US and the USSR having huge offensive nuclear forces such that a retaliatory strike would always yield unsurvivable or unacceptable levels of damage. It was known as Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). A working definition of a first-strike weapon is any weapon that can be used to negate the use of an enemy’s nuclear weapons or negate or limit an enemy’s decision-making to launch a retaliatory nuclear strike.  

Over time, the US and the USSR/Russia have agreed to reductions in nuclear weapons (START I, START II and SORT) and to limit the deployment of anti-ballistic missile (ABM) programs (1972 ABM Treaty). The reduction in nuclear weapons reflected an understanding that the number of remaining nuclear weapons could cause unacceptable destruction if launched in a first, or retaliatory, strike. It appears that the US and Russia are both working toward reaching the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) and the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) pacts. Under new START policy, both sides agreed to following limits:

  • 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), deployed submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments;

  • 1,550 nuclear warheads on deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs, and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments (each such heavy bomber is counted as one warhead toward this limit);

  • 800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments.

What other first strike weapons systems would be needed to make a hypersonic cruise missile an effective first strike weapon? The first weapon is a Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS). The speed of the FOBS is what allows the supersonic combustion ramjet (SCRAMJET) to operate and power the cruise missile to Mach 5 in the atmosphere. To deploy the hypersonic cruise missile from the FOBS, the cruise missile must have a retrograde engine to slow it down and stabilize it for its flight. The FOBS’ speed also allows for a faster attack at a lower trajectory. An ICBM travels at about 15,000 mph and climbs to an altitude of about 1,000 miles. A FOBS travels at about 17,500 mph and only reaches an altitude of about 100 miles. By traveling faster and at a lower altitude it cuts the nominal weapons delivery time from 30 to 20 minutes. Reducing an enemies’ decision-making and execution time by over 30%.  

Other weapons necessary to help a hypersonic cruise missile be a first strike weapon are lasers/directed energy weapons, anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, and an effective, broad area coverage ABM system. Lasers/directed energy weapons are necessary to blind opposing surveillance systems to the launch of a FOBS. Use of lasers/directed energy weapons could be implemented in a way that is not readily apparent and does not elicit an immediate response or concern. If an attack on surveillance systems or the launch of a FOBS is readily identifiable, the enemy could use that to launch on warning and negate the advantage of the cruise missile. Similarly, ASAT use against a surveillance system would help hide the launch of a FOBS; however, deployment and use of an ASAT is closely monitored and could again lead to a launch-on-warning situation. The final first strike weapon is an ABM system. This is not a massive ABM system capable of shooting down all the incoming warheads of a retaliatory strike. It’s a system with enough weapons to defend the high value targets whose survival will allow a country to continue to operate after a nuclear exchange. Added together, these first strike weapons systems could allow a hypersonic cruise missile to be deployed and used to negate a possible retaliatory strike or reduce the retaliatory strike to an acceptable level. 

How can a nation defend against these first-strike weapons? First and foremost, countries need to protect their surveillance systems and ensure they have the means of detecting and categorizing missile/rocket launches in a timely manner.  

Elements of the Current U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense System 

  • Ground-based Midcourse Defense

  • Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense

  • Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)

  • Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-3)

  • Space-based Infrared System-High (SBIRS-HIGH)

Unfortunately, at this time, defense against the hypersonic cruise missile may not be available or effective. One of characteristics of the cruise missile is that it can maneuver or change course. Current ABM systems appear to have limited capability against maneuvering targets. It may be possible to engage the FOBS delivery vehicle before the cruise missile is deployed; however, once deployed and maneuvering it will be harder to track and engage.

Fortunately, hypersonic weapons testing is still being conducted and there are significant challenges to overcome before they can be fielded. One of the biggest challenges is building a missile and warhead that can withstand the 4,000 degree Farenheit temperature of hypersonic atmospheric flight. New construction materials will need to be created and tested. A second challenge will be navigation. Precision navigation will require significant electronic equipment hardened against the temperatures encountered. Finally, there are issues with maneuvering and aerodynamics at hypersonic speeds. New technology will have to be found to overcome the atmospheric pressure on the missile body and the flight controls. Hopefully, while this testing and development is going on, negotiations and treaties will commence to limit or eliminate hypersonic cruise missiles from nuclear warfare.

As stated, hypersonic cruise missiles could be a first strike weapon in nuclear warfare. There’s a historical precedent for how two nuclear weapons can influence the outcome of a war. There’s still a need to maintain nuclear deterrence through limiting the deployment of nuclear weapons. The U.S. must also look at the broader scope of how a first strike weapon is defined, and then find ways to limit their deployment and use. Finally, you must monitor the development of weapons systems by your adversaries if you want to know each nation’s capabilities. 

 
Mike George